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 The United States, reeling from a year of living through COVID-19, shutdowns, quarantine and civil unrest, finished the year off with what might go down as the most polarizing election in a generation. Not only is it unusual for a sitting president to lose re-election — something that hasn’t happened since Bill Clinton unseated George H. W. Bush in 1992 — it is even more unusual for a candidate to not accept the results of an election and refuse to concede to the president-elect.  

It is not yet clear how President Trump’s legacy will be affected by his refusal to accept the results of the election and his handling of the riots that occured at the U.S. Capitol on January 6. What is clear, however, is that a majority of the country has decided to lean toward more liberal policies and agendas — or at least away from the alternative.  

Here in Iowa, our so-called “swing state” stayed still in its support for Trump. Iowa is not alone in that regard: Florida and North Carolina are also swing states that swung red for Trump in 2016 and stayed red for Trump in 2020. But since those states are deeply rooted in “Southern” ideals, that may not be much of a surprise. Most other notable swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) all did a 180 and flipped their support to now-President Joe Biden. Even a historically conservative state like Georgia turned blue, which hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years.  

There is no question that Iowa is leaning toward conservative ideals as a state. Iowa didn’t just support conservative ideals at the executive level; many Republican candidates were successful at the state and district level as well. The real question is: is Iowa still a swing state, and if not, why not?  

To understand how we got here, it is important to go back to where it all started. 

In the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state of Iowa supported democratic candidate Barack Obama. Then, in 2016, Iowa swung its support to Trump.

On the surface it may seem as though Iowa’s conservative transition began with the general election in 2016. But that is a macro-level executive example. The transition more than likely started back in 2010, when former long-time Iowa governor and Republican Terry Branstad came out of retirement to defeat Democratic incumbent Chet Culver for the governorship. The transition could be seen as complete when, in 2016, Joni Ernst won the open Iowa Senate seat to give the state two Republican senators to go along with a Republican governor.  

That covers “when,” but what about “why”? This is where it gets considerably more difficult to pin down. However, according to Grand View University Professor of Political Science James Mowrer, one reason for the conservative shift is that the Democratic Party simply became too liberal too fast for Iowans.  

“Republicans are slow to change; they prefer the status quo,” Mowrer said.  

In other words, if Iowans seem to be more conservative than in years past, this might be in large part a reaction to the rapid liberalization of the Democratic Party. According to Mowrer, much of the disconnect centers around issues such as same-sex marriage, gun rights and abortion.  

Let’s start with same-sex marriage. Here in Iowa, this may seem like an old issue, as gay marriage has been legal in this state for over a decade. But remember the timeline. Iowa’s conservative transition really started in 

2010. Gay marriage became legal in Iowa in 2009. A year later, Branstad came out of retirement.  

Over the next decade, Republican Kim Reynolds was elected governor, and the state elected Republicans to both Senate seats. Again, the timeline fits, and this suggests the legalization of gay marriage was a turning point in Iowa’s changing political climate.  

It also coincides with what Mowrer said about Democrats becoming too liberal too fast for Iowans. For example, President Obama publicly stated he was against gay marriage when he ran for office in 2008. That would have been unthinkable for a Democrat to say in 2020 — or even in 2012 when he switched his stance on the issue. This could explain why Iowa went from supporting Obama to Trump, two candidates who could not be more different from one another, in a relatively short amount of time.  

But if you’re thinking to yourself that when you look around, you don’t see that many people who disagree with gay marriage, that may be true — depending on where you live. This is where it becomes important to talk about the urban/rural divide. Anyone who studies politics, understands this divide well. The basic idea is that the values of those in rural areas typically differ from those living in urban areas.  

Exhibit A: Gun rights. Those in rural areas are more likely to be gun owners for two simple reasons. First, they actually have enough land on which to safely fire their weapons, something those of us in the city do not have. Second, hunting culture is more prevalent in rural areas. Those two statements could be argued against as just stereotypes, but Grand View University Professor of Political Science Bryan McQuide doesn’t think so.  

“Just look at the counties that Biden won in Iowa,” McQuide said. “I think he won like four or five counties. All counties that have big cities or college towns. The rest of the rural counties in Iowa all supported Trump.”  

For avid hunters or gun hobbyists in rural Iowa, it seems likely they would oppose the anti-gun agendas of many in the Democratic Party and align with pro-gun-rights Republican candidates.  

As for abortion, to see Iowa’s stance on the issue, just look at the career trajectory of Governor Reynolds. She was appointed acting governor by Branstad in 2016 after he accepted Trump’s offer and left to become the U.S. Ambassador to China. She would not actually be elected governor in her own right until she defeated Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell in 2018. One of the issues she ran on: abortion.  

Reynolds told voters she would sign anti-abortion legislation if she were elected. She followed through when she signed the Fetal Heartbeat Bill in 2019. Although the Iowa State Supreme Court would eventually strike down the bill, it is interesting to note Iowa’s support of Reynolds and her platform to sign the bill in the first place. It is also interesting to note that Hubbell, Reynold’s challenger in that 2018 election, won only nine counties in Iowa. He won the same five counties that Biden won, plus another four where Biden was competitive but did not win.  

You may be reading this and thinking to yourself: Republicans are opposed to gay marriage and abortion, and they also want to keep their gun rights — no kidding, tell us something we don’t know. Fair enough, I’ll try. Did you know there is a belief among some white evangelicals (non-Catholic, protestant Christians) that Trump is a long-promised hero from an ancient biblical prophecy?  

Grand View University Professor of History Thomas Lecaque wrote an article about this exact myth, published in the Washington Post. Lecaque said the prophecy is called the Last World Emperor and that it refers to “a king in the Davidic model who will be flawed but will come in a time of crisis to restore the power and prestige of a Christian Empire.” According to an Associated Press VoteCast survey, 81% of white evangelicals voted for Trump in 2020. And according to Lecaque, some outspoken evangelical leaders have floated the idea that Trump is the Davidic king and that the U.S. is that Christian empire.  

What’s interesting to note is, because the myth calls for a “flawed” hero, it means that the sect of evangelicals who believe this myth applies to Trump do so not in spite of his more questionable behavior but rather because of it. So any notion of Trump’s questionable behavior being a deal-breaker for religious-minded voters is not necessarily true. 

What does this myth and the support it has in some Evangelical circles have to do with Iowa and its political climate? Well, Iowa, which does not have a large Catholic denomination base, is home to a large population of evangelical Christians. To be sure, not all of these 

Christians ascribe to the Last World Emperor belief (or even know that it exists), but some do.  

“I’m not arguing that every single Christian who supported the Trump administration is viewing this through an apocalyptic lens and thinks of him as this flawed apocalyptic hero that is here to bring about the end times,” Lecaque said. “But I am saying that they are out there.” 

While many Iowans may not even be aware of the myth, there is still a correlation between the 81% of white evangelicals who supported Trump and the fact that Iowa has a large white evangelical population. If even a small portion of the voters who believe the myth are religious leaders or even people of influence in the state of Iowa, then you can expect there would be a trickle-down effect to the people they influence. The public embrace of Trump by evangelical thought leaders could reasonably give Trump a strong support group here in Iowa.  

The issues above are polarizing, as they have always been. And although they are not unique to the state of Iowa, it is clear that they have an impact on many of the state’s voters. As a result, Iowans are picking sides, and many are landing in the conservative camp. If this trend continues, it’s likely that Iowa will lose its status as a swing state. What does that mean for Iowans?  

One outcome that is entirely possible is that since the state has become predictably conservative, then Democratic candidates will not spend as much time in the state to campaign for the presidency. If you are a Democrat, that means your party’s future presidential nominees may choose to look past winner-take-all Iowa. It could also mean you will not see as many of your party’s candidates come through the state or spend their time and money on grassroots campaigns. If you are a Republican, then the opposite is true. With the state leaning conservative, you will probably see more of the candidates you prefer. For Independent voters, it means you will get less of the first-hand exposure to candidates on both sides that you may be used to. These trends could put Iowa’s first-state status in jeopardy as parties look for early primary and caucus sites that are more reflective of the national voter base. 

All Iowans will also have to get used to more conservative legislation. A recent example is the new Iowa School Choice bill. This bill, which Reynolds proposed recently, would allow some students in public school districts to open-enroll in public schools outside of their neighborhoods or even in private schools while receiving tuition assistance from taxpayer dollars. While this gives parents more choice in where their child can go to school, some are concerned that it will funnel money away from low-performing public schools and toward high-performing public schools or even private schools — some of which are religiously affiliated. They argue that both options would take away funding from the public schools that need it the most.  

The bill is just one example of the type of legislation that we can export more of in the coming years if Republican dominance continues. However, for those who desire a return to times when Iowa was more politically competitive, let the words of Mowrer reassure you.